• Default and interest rate shocks: Renegotiation matters 

      Nicolini, Juan Pablo; Almeida, Victor; Esquivel, Carlos; Kehoe, Timothy Jerome (Universidad Torcuato Di TellaRutgers University, Department of EconomicsUniversity of Minnesota, 2023)
      We develop a sovereign default model with endogenous re-entry to financial markets via debt renegotiation. We use this model to evaluate how shocks to risk-free interest rates trigger default episodes through two channels: ...
    • Do trade agreements contribute to the decline in labor share? Evidence from Latin American countries 

      González-Rozada, Martín; Ruffo, Hernán (World Development (ISSN 1873-5991), 2024)
      In this paper, we explore the role of trade in the evolution of labor share in Latin American countries (LAC). We use trade agreements with large economies (US, EU, and China) to capture the effect of sharp changes in ...
    • Estimating the Welfare Costs of Very High Inflations and Hyperinflations 

      Nicolini, Juan Pablo; Benati, Luca (Universität Bern, 2024)
      We explore the welfare costs of inflation originating from lack of liquidity satiation for Weimar Republic’s hyperinflation and three high-inflation countries. Towards the peak of Weimar’s hyperinflation the costs are ...
    • External Shocks versus Domestic Policies in Emerging Markets 

      Espino, Emilio; Kozlowski, Julian; Martin, Fernando M.; Sánchez, Juan M. (Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis, 2023)
      Debt crises in emerging markets have been linked to large fiscal deficits, high inflation rates, and large devaluations. This article studies a sovereign default model with domestic fiscal and monetary policies to understand ...
    • El impacto de los programas de crédito para la reactivación del tejido productivo y el empleo tras la pandemia: el caso de Argentina 

      González-Rozada, Martín; Támola, Alejandro; Fernández Díez, María Carmen (Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo, 2023)
      This technical paper seeks to narrow the knowledge gap concerning the impacts of financing and provision of credit to accelerate recovery and adjustments in the wake of a crisis. Due to the lack of data in developing ...
    • Optimal Cooperative Taxation in the Global Economy 

      Nicolini, Juan Pablo; Chari, V. V.; Teles, Pedro (The University of Chicago Press, 2023)
      How should countries cooperate in setting fiscal and trade policies when government expenditures must be financed with distorting taxes? We show that even if countries cannot make explicit transfers to each other, every ...
    • The welfare effects of unemployment insurance in Argentina. New estimates using changes in the schedule of transfers 

      Ruffo, Hernán; González-Rozada, Martín (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, 2022)
      Unemployment insurance transfers should balance the provision of consumption to the unemployed with the disincentive effects on the search behavior. Developing countries face the additional challenge of informality. Workers ...
    • Variable elimination, graph reduction and the efficient g-formula 

      F Richard Guo; Emilija Perković; Andrea Rotnitzky (BiometrikaOxford University Press, 2023)
      We study efficient estimation of an interventional mean associated with a point exposure treatment under a causal graphical model represented by a directed acyclic graph without hidden variables. Under such a model, a ...