The Potential Footprint of Plant- Based Meat Adoption on Leading Crop Producers

Abstract

Plant-based meat (PBM) has the potential to improve the global food supply chain on numerous environmental and societal dimensions. Some of these gains, derived from lower animal meat production, could disrupt the supply chain of crops that are used as animal feed. In 2021, 60% of global corn and 72% of global soybean output were used as inputs for animal meat production. In this paper we evaluate the potential impact of animal meat displacement, globally or in developed regions, on major corn and soybean producing regions. We combine trading patterns and regional cost structures with crop demand shocks induced by PBM growth, to occur by 2031 on top of an OECD-FAO baseline projection without alternative meats. We find that potential PBM adoption in the US and the European Union would have a minor effect on crop markets. Worldwide adoption of PBM, however, could lead to a significant decrease in corn and soybean prices. The impact on crop producing regions could be highly heterogeneous and a function of regional characteristics. Our findings shed light on a trade-off associated to the significant benefits of more sustainable meat production.